VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars,Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated byVarietysenior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS|EMMYS|GRAMMYS|TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions: All Categories
Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 24, 2024): Ridley Scott’s highly anticipated blockbuster sequel, “Gladiator II,” made an impressive debut with its first screening in Los Angeles, shown to an audience of AMPAS and SAG voters. The screening has instantly thrust the Paramount Pictures epic into the Oscar conversation, with the film positioned as a strong contender in several categories. Notably, Denzel Washington, a two-time Academy Award winner, has emerged as a potential best supporting actor nominee. Washington could secure his third Oscar if he wins, further solidifying his place among Hollywood’s elite.
Paramount Pictures had an exceptional week overall. Their acquired drama “September 5” won the Audience Award at the Middleburg Film Festival, tying with Focus Features’ religious thriller “Conclave.” For “Conclave,” this marks its second Audience Award win, following a previous win at the Mill Valley Film Festival, confirming the film’s broad appeal and crowd-pleasing nature.
The success of “September 5” at Middleburg is particularly significant, as the festival’s audience often skews older, making it a valuable indicator of how the film might perform with more mature viewers. The strong reception from this demographic suggests the film could perform well with general audiences as it moves forward in its release and potential awards season campaign.
Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on theVarietyAwards Circuit:Oscars.
While at the Middleburg Film Festival, I also observed the varied responses to other festival darlings like Brady Corbet’s 215-minute historical epic “The Brutalist” and Jacques Audiard’s crime musical “Emilia Perez.” Some attendees shared some varied and some mixed reactions. “Emilia Perez,” distributed by Netflix, notably missed out on taking home the international feature audience prize awarded to Neon’s “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Mohammad Rasoulof. The loss could be a warning sign for “Emilia Perez” or indicate a more challenging road ahead regarding stabilizing awards season buzz. Netflix will likely require continued screenings and support from its admirers to build momentum as it seeks to establish a stronger foothold in the competitive international film market.
Paramount’s strong performance with films like “Gladiator II” and “September 5” positions the studio (currently going through a highly publicized transition) as a major player in the upcoming awards season. As these films gain traction, audiences, and industry insiders should watch their progress as potential award-winning titles. For moviegoers, these films offer a glimpse into some of the year’s most exciting and critically acclaimed projects.
The latest updates to the Oscar predictions are below. You’ll find some increased potential noms for Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two” and Berger’s “Conclave.” But there is still a long way to go. Next is the SCAD Savannah Film Festival, where “Blitz,” “The Piano Lesson,” and the big animated feature contenders will try to charm the southern crowd.
Top 4 projected nomination leaders (films): “Gladiator II” (11); “Emilia Pérez” (10); “The Brutalist” and “Dune: Part Two” (9); “Conclave” (8)
Top 4 projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (17); A24 and Paramount Pictures (12); Focus Features (11); Warner Bros. (9); Sony Pictures Classics (7)
The 97thOscarswill be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
“Anora” (Neon)
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Director
Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Edward Berger
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Brady Corbet
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Ridley Scott ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Denis Villeneuve
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actor
Adrien Brody ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Paul Mescal
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actress
Angelina Jolie ***
“Maria” (Netflix)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Saoirse Ronan
“The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Tilda Swinton
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Clarence Maclin
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Stanley Tucci
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Denzel Washington ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Ariana Grande
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Saoirse Ronan
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Screenplay
“Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
Mohammad Rasoulof
“September 5” (Paramount Pictures)
Moritz Binder, Alex David, Tim FehlbaumOscar category page with rankings>>>
Adapted Screenplay
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
James Mangold, Jay Cocks
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro Almodóvar
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” WhitfieldOscar category page with rankings>>>
Animated Feature
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
Kelsey Mann, Mark Nielsen
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
Adam Elliot, Liz Kearney
“Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
Morgan Neville, Pharrell Williams, Mimi Valdés, Caitrin Rogers, Shani Saxon
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***
Chris Sanders, Jeff HermannOscar category page with rankings>>>
Production Design
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Judy Becker
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Arthur Max, Elli Griff
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Nathan CrowleyOscar category page with rankings>>>
Cinematography
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Lol Crawley
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Stéphane Fontaine
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Greig Fraser
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
John Mathieson
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Jarin BlaschkeOscar category page with rankings>>>
Costume Design
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Jacqueline Durran
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Jacqueline West
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Janty Yates
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Linda Muir
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***
Paul TazewellOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Film Editing
“Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Nick Emerson
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Joe Walker
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Juliette Welfling
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
Sam Restivo, Claire SimpsonOscar category page with rankings>>>
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Sound
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Visual Effects
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Original Score
“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
Daniel Blumberg
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Clément Ducol, Camille
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Harry Gregson-Williams
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Alberto Iglesias
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Kris BowersOscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Song
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“Winter Coat” by Nicholas Britell, Steve McQueen, and Taura Stinson
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Mi Camino” by Clément Ducol and Camille
“The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“The Journey” by Diane Warren
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
“Kiss the Sky” by Delacey, Jordan Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack & Ali Tamposi
“Will & Harper” (Netflix)
“Harper and Will Go West” by Sean Douglas, Kristen Wiig & Josh GreenbaumOscar category page with rankings>>>
Documentary Feature
“Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)
dir. Shiori Itô
“Dahomey” (Mubi)
dir. Mati Diop
“Daughters” (Netflix) ***
dir. Angela Patton, Natalie Rae
“No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme)
dirs. Yuval Abraham, Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Rachel Szor, Fabien Greenberg, Bård Kjøge Rønning
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
dir. Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily KassieOscar category page with rankings>>>
International Feature
“Dahomey” from Senegal (Mubi)
dir. Mati Diop
“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
dir. Jacques Audiard
“Grand Tour” from Portugal (Mubi)
dir. Miguel Gomes
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
dir. Walter Salles
“The Seed of a Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)
dir. Mohammad RasoulofOscar category page with rankings>>>
